Avoiding Disaster in a Recall
[I think this editorial/letter raises a point which no one has made yet, which is that, without IRV, we face the very real possibility of a groundhog day scenario, wherein a governor elected by a small minority of the voting public (let alone the actual potential voters) takes office with a minimum of legitimacy, is completely ineffective at dealing with the legislature or the budget crisis, loses all support, and is recalled himself. IRV would make this much less likely, as the replacement for a recalled official would have the mandate of a clear majority of voters. -Thomas]
IRV Solution to Potential Disasterous Recall Outcome
With the drive to recall Gray Davis gaining momentum every day, support for the recall of Davis exceeding 51% in the polls for the first time, Davis’ poll numberse at an all time low, and a bevy of candidates chomping at the bit to run, California’s voters are faced with the very real possibility of electing a Governor unable to obtain the support of anything even close to a majority of voters (some analysts have suggested that the victor in a recall replacement election could take office with as little as 15% of the vote). This could precipitate a nightmare scenario: our state adrift without effective leadership during a time of great crisis. How? Take one Governor, give him or her the weakest mandate possible from the voting public, combine that with a hostile and uncooperative legislature, a budget crisis that would test even the strongest and most politically adept leader, and the likely result is a Governor with even less support than Davis currently has (and far less legitimacy or political power).
This outcome is all too likely, given that a legislature controlled by the Democratic Party is unlikely to be happy with any replacement (whether it be a Democrat viewed as a traitor for breaking ranks with a sitting Governor, or a member of the opposition Green or Republican Party) and that the very tightly knit Republican minority will face even less pressure to concede on policy with a weak Democrat, Green or a supportive Republican in the Governor’s office. Further, with the budgetary and economic catastrophe facing the state growing every day, it is questionable whether any politican lacking a mandate from the public will be able to muster the political strength necessary to address it, even without a hostile legislature. In this atmosphere, it even becomes possible that the replacement him or herself could face a recall of their own, making for a sort of “Groundhog Day” scenario as the public faces the choice of a new governor for the third (or even fourth!) time inside of four years.
We can avoid this disaster - there is an alternative way of conducting elections to the current system. It is called Instant Runoff Voting, or IRV for short. This simple reform, in which the voters rank their choices for the office in question 1, 2, 3, and then a series of “runoffs” is instantly conducted, eliminating the candidate with the lowest amount of votes, and transferring these to the voters next most favored choice, guarantees that the winner will be preferred over all others by a majority of the voters. It has been in use in Australia, Ireland, and within the United States in a number of places for many years, and is well tested. Among its many beneficial effects, it dramatically decreases the amount of negative campaigning, as candidate seek to curry favor with supporters of other candidates who might make them their second choice.
IRV is compatible with the California Constitution (which simply specifies that the candidate with the “most votes” must assume office), and can be passed by a simple majority of the legislature (although the current recall election is likely to be put on the ballot too soon for such a reform to be put in place). It is a sensible reform whose time has more than come.
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Editor,
With the drive to recall Gray Davis gaining momentum every day, support for the recall exceeding 51% in the polls, and candidates lining up to run, California’s voters are faced with the very real possibility of electing a Governor unable to obtain the support of anything even close to a majority of voters. This could precipitate a nightmare scenario: our state adrift without effective leadership during a time of great crisis. How? Give the newly elected Governor the weakest mandate possible from the voting public, combine that with a hostile and uncooperative legislature, a budget crisis that would test even the strongest and most politically adept leader, and the likely result is someone with even less support than Davis currently has (and far less legitimacy or political power).
We can avoid this disaster - there is an alternative way of conducting elections to the current system. It is called Instant Runoff Voting, or IRV for short. This simple reform is well tested, having been used both domestically and abroad for many years. The voters rank their choices for the office in question 1, 2, 3, and then a series of “runoffs” is instantly conducted (eliminating the candidate with the lowest amount of votes, and transferring these to the voters next most favored choice). The result: a winner who is clearly preferred over all others by a majority of the voters.
IRV is compatible with the California Constitution (which simply specifies that the candidate with the “most votes” must assume office), and can be passed by a simple majority of the legislature (although the current recall election is likely to be put on the ballot too soon for such a reform to be put in place). It is a sensible reform whose time has more than come, and the cost to the state of not implementing it is becoming more and more clear every day.
Regards,
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